Property exchanges have rocketed 30% year on year for properties over £200k, while overall property exchanges are up over 11% compared to a year ago - contradicting predictions of 2018 market slowdown the latest TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report for Q3 2018 has revealed.
36% increase in the number of detached properties exchanging;
There was also a 36% increase in the number of detached properties exchanging in Q3 and a 16% growth in the number of exchanges amongst 46 to 66-year-old movers compared with last year (123,466 properties). Amongst silver economy movers there was an equal 16% growth in exchanges, while representing a smaller number (62,085) of properties. Yet, amongst 36-45-year-olds there was just a 3% growth in exchanges – the lowest of all age groups.
Terraced and semi-detached houses continued to make up the largest proportion of property sales - consistently comprising over 50% of all exchanges every quarter, reflecting the core UK housing stock. While new instructions are up 2.5% year on year, if this exchange growth persists, the lack of available housing stock coming to market may frustrate buyers which in turn may start to push house prices up from the modest 1.9% increase in the last 12 months.
Colin Bradshaw, TwentyCi’s Chief Customer Officer, commented: “2018 has seen a significant increase in the number of home buyers and sellers finalising their transaction. Whilst this is good news for those in the home moving journey, the lacklustre volume of properties coming to market has the potential to thwart demand. This in turn has the potential to push up prices as demand outstrips supply, particularly with the most desirable properties and within the most desirable areas. Equally of course, with the uncertainty over prices and the ability to purchase post-Brexit as people bide their time to see how the markets react, we could likewise see demand falling away leading to a fall in prices.”
Online estate agents
The market share of online estate agents revealed an unexpected 6% fall in all residential exchanges compared to Q2 and now represent an overall market share of 7.2%. “Given the significant and continuing investment in advertising by the pure play online agents one might have expected their market share growth to have continued to climb, so this fall in their number of exchanges is unexpected,” said Colin. “We’re also seeing some movement to focus on traditional approaches with Connells Group terminating their online offering with the closure of Hatched. A blip in the road or bellwether signs of structural market change? Only time will tell.”
New build booms in London
The latest report found that the percentage of housing stock available to buy as new builds varies widely across the UK. In East Central London this was a massive 23% of stock, while West London was the lowest this still represented nearly 8% in Q3. Across other major UK cities in Manchester new builds represented over 7% of housing stock in Q3 while Cardiff was under 4%.
Percentage of housing stock available to buy that is new builds:
| | London Areas | 2018 Q3 |
| EC | Eastern Central London | 22.83% |
| E | East London | 12.62% |
| WC | Western Central London | 12.08% |
| NW | North West London | 10.77% |
| SW | South West London | 9.40% |
| N | North London | 9.28% |
| SE | South East London | 9.17% |
| W | West London | 7.59% |
Ownership or rental
The London Enigma is also clearly evident in the rental market. In major cities, one third of housing stock available in Q3 was rental, while in London this has risen to two thirds of all properties. This continued in balance reflects the type of housing tenure available and the lack of affordability in London. Across major UK cities the average tenure is now over 4 years and London over 3.5 years.
Lucky Friday
Friday remains the most popular day of the week to complete on a property, with nearly half of all moves at the end of the week in 2018 and just 10% on Tuesdays.
Download report: http://insight.twentyci.co.uk/twentyci-property-homemover-report-q3-2018