2025: a year of compression, not collapse
If 2025 was a year of endurance, 2026 could be a year of consolidation.
The UK removals industry last year once again proved itself a close reflection of the housing market: resilient in overall volume, but uneven in flow and unforgiving on margins.
It was a year defined less by “collapse” than by “compression”: compression of demand into shorter windows, of distances moved, and of operational tolerance.
Compared with 2024, the market in 2025 carried more substance than many feared. Transaction levels broadly held up, supported by a steady rise in listings and a release of pent-up demand where affordability allowed. However, activity has been far from smooth. The first quarter was dominated by caution, followed by a pronounced “Spring Surge” as buyers raced to complete ahead of the April stamp duty threshold change. For removers, this translated into intense pressure on availability, vehicles and crews - followed almost immediately by a noticeable easing.
This “stop-start” pattern was the defining operational challenge of 2025. Demand has not disappeared, but it has become less predictable. Completion days are more congested, delays more common, and diary planning more complex. At the same time, the nature of moves has continued to evolve. Average move distances have shortened again, reinforcing a trend toward local churn rather than long-distance relocation. That shift brings volume, but not necessarily value, particularly when customers remain highly price-sensitive and reluctant to commit early.
Margins, therefore, remain tight. Rising costs - from labour to fuel, insurance and compliance - have been difficult to pass on in full, especially when consumers perceive removals as a discretionary spend rather than a professional service. Many firms report being busy without feeling profitable, a familiar but uncomfortable position.
Yet there are reasons for cautious optimism as we look ahead to 2026. Mortgage rates have eased from their peaks, affordability metrics are stabilising, and sentiment across the housing market, while still fragile, is improving. Importantly, expectations are shifting from “how bad will it get?” to “when does it pick up?”. That change in mindset matters.
My prediction for 2026 is not a dramatic rebound, but a gradual normalisation. Transaction volumes are likely to edge higher, volatility should reduce, and planning horizons may lengthen. The businesses best placed to benefit will be those that treat uncertainty as a permanent condition rather than a temporary disruption: firms investing in forecasting, diversifying into storage and value-added services, communicating clearly about completion risk, and maintaining disciplined cost control.
If 2025 was a year of endurance, 2026 could be a year of consolidation - and, for the best-run removal companies, a return to sustainable confidence and profitability.